Standard-Examiner
Tuesday, October 23, 2007
By Jim Hutchins
Guest commentary
Violent crimes weaken our society and are an abomination. Ever since the first violent crime, the murder of Abel by his brother, human society has recognized that these horrific events deserve special notice.
For this reason, and to measure the success of crimefighting efforts, the Utah Bureau of Criminal Identification (Utah BCI) and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) keep careful statistics on crimes committed in all jurisdictions in our country.
For comparison and record-keeping purposes, both law enforcement agencies recognize four crimes, which are uniformly defined and grouped as "violent crime": homicide (murder), forcible rape, robbery and aggravated assault.
As a citizen and a taxpayer, I expect -- and I insist -- that Ogden city keep careful track of these statistics and report them accurately to the Utah BCI and to the FBI.
These data are concrete. Either a murder was reported or it was not. Either a rape was reported or it was not. There are not different ways of "slicing" the data. It happened or it didn't.
However, I have good evidence that Mayor Godfrey, in the midst of a competitive re-election campaign, has not been truthful with his constituents about these statistics. Mayor Godfrey reports: "Crime has dropped more than 23 percent since Matthew Godfrey became mayor, including a drop in violent crimes of 43 percent ..." ( www.votematthew.com/about.html).
These statistics, which are at odds with other reputable sources, were also reported on an advertisement, based on data supplied by the mayor and paid for by Ogden city. They were published in the Standard-Examiner Aug. 30, and have recently appeared on his campaign Web page ( www.votematthew.com/crime.pdf).
The numbers given by the mayor in support of his re-election campaign are completely different than the numbers published by Chief Jon Greiner, by the Utah BCI and by the FBI. There were six murders, 54 rapes, 113 robberies and 252 aggravated assaults reported in Ogden (population 67,460) in 1999 according to the FBI. That totals 425 violent crimes by the standard definition. The FBI Uniform Crime Report (UCR) states a violent crime rate of 6.3 violent crimes per 1,000 people. The Utah BCI also reports a violent crime rate of 6.3 per 1,000 people. Chief Greiner's 2004 report says the rate is 5.6 violent crimes per 1,000 people (page 17).
Mayor Godfrey says it was 6.7. The higher number, used as his pre-Godfrey administration baseline, makes the "drop" he claims seem greater.
In 2006, there were 474 violent crimes reported to the Utah BCI for Ogden city (population 80,861). The FBI report lists 415 violent crimes for this year. I've looked at comparable figures for the seven largest cities in Utah, and no other city has a significant discrepancy between the Utah BCI and FBI.
For example, West Valley City, with a population of 116,992, reported 475 violent crimes to the Utah BCI and 473 to the FBI. Why these two sources differ so much for only Ogden city in 2006 needs explanation.
As a citizen and a taxpayer, I expect that the mayor will accurately report violent crime statistics.
Still, the difference between these numbers does not explain the artificially low numbers reported by Mayor Godfrey. To get the violent crime rate he reports (he gives no absolute numbers), there would have to be only 307 violent crimes reported in Ogden in 2006. The mayor's campaign Web page references the Ogden Police Department as his source:
* Utah BCI: 6.0 violent crimes per 1,000 people, 474 violent crimes reported.
* FBI: 5.2 violent crimes per 1,000 people, 415 violent crimes reported.
* Mayor Godfrey: 3.8 violent crimes per 1,000 people, 307 violent crimes reported.
In order to determine the source of the mayor's numbers, I contacted Det. Dave Weloth of the Ogden Police Department and asked for the 2006 source data. He asked Chief Jon Greiner, and I was told by the chief to refer to the state source data. I therefore assume that the Utah BCI data are the most accurate set.
There have been similar problems with other data reported by the Godfrey administration. In well-documented cases, projected gondola ridership numbers, campaign finance numbers, sale prices for properties, board votes and all manner of data have been misreported, manipulated or fabricated.
It seems that the administration, the city council and the citizens need accurate information in order to make informed decisions. That basic standard is not being met.
I invite readers to check the Web sites listed below and draw their own conclusion.
* 1999 data from a published report by Ogden Police Chief Jon Greiner, published 2004: www.ogdencity.com/img/import/pdf/Ogden%20PD%2012-Yr%20Crime.pdf (pp. 17, 26).
* 1999 data from the Utah Bureau of Criminal Investigation: http://bci.utah.gov/Stats/1999.pdf (p. 14).
* 1999 FBI Uniform Crime Report data for Ogden: www.fbi.gov/ucr/Cius_99/99crime/99c2_13.pdf (p. 104).
* 2006 data from the Utah Bureau of Criminal Investigation: http://bci.utah.gov/Stats/2006.pdf (p. 6). These data are clearly marked "Preliminary."
* 2006 FBI Uniform Crime Report data for Ogden: www.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2006/data/table_08_ut.html.
* 1990-2004 data from the Utah Commission on Criminal & Juvenile Justice: http://ucrs.state.ut.us/UtahCrime/UtahCrime.jsp. These data appear to be identical to the Utah BCI numbers.
Hutchins is a neuroscientist and has been on the Weber State University faculty for two years. He lives in Ogden.
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